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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.32 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -2.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model