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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 35 for 22 yards (7-J.Gillan).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model