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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2021-11-14 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

TB
68.8%
WAS
31.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.013 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.235 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 26
–
WAS 21
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

TB

Antonio Brown WR Out Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Out Back
Rashard Robinson CB Out Hamstring
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Questionable Shoulder
Dee Delaney CB Questionable Ankle
Chris Godwin WR Questionable Foot

WAS

Curtis Samuel WR Out Groin
Benjamin St-Juste CB Out Illness
Montez Sweat DE Out Jaw
Dyami Brown WR Questionable Knee
Samuel Cosmi T Questionable Ankle
Sammis Reyes TE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 19
–
WAS 29

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:01 FG WAS (10:01) 3-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. TB 0 – WAS 3
  • Q1 06:00 FG WAS (6:00) 3-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. TB 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 12:27 TD WAS (12:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 1-D.Carter for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – WAS 12
  • Q2 06:47 FG TB (6:47) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 3 – WAS 13
  • Q2 01:01 FG WAS (1:01) 3-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. TB 3 – WAS 16
  • Q2 00:00 FG TB (:00) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 6 – WAS 16
  • Q3 08:51 TD TB (8:51) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – WAS 16
  • Q3 04:29 TD WAS (4:29) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – WAS 22
  • Q4 11:02 TD TB (11:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – WAS 23
  • Q4 00:31 TD WAS (:31) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB-50-V.Vea was injured during the play. TB 19 – WAS 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:45) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to WAS 30, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-D.Carter to WAS 40 for 10 yards (43-R.Cockrell; 49-C.Gill).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 80%

    (10:01) 3-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (6:00) 3-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (4:01) 12-T.Brady right guard to TB 35 for 2 yards (55-C.Holcomb). QB sneak

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%

    (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 41-J.McKissic to TB 24 for 4 yards (54-L.David).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (6:47) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (1:01) 3-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 34%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 25 for 22 yards (23-W.Jackson). PENALTY on WAS-23-W.Jackson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 13 yards, enforced at WAS 25.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:46) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to TB 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 1-J.Darden to TB 38 for 10 yards (59-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (12:10) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:56) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to WAS 47, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 1-J.Darden to WAS 43 for 4 yards (48-D.Forrest). TB-1-J.Darden was injured during the play.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 23%

    (15:00) 8-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (:31) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB-50-V.Vea was injured during the play.