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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to WAS 30, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-D.Carter to WAS 40 for 10 yards (43-R.Cockrell; 49-C.Gill).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model