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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.85 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP