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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP