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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB-50-V.Vea was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +4.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.74 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model