Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 72

Washington Commanders 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

(13:46) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to TB 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 1-J.Darden to TB 38 for 10 yards (59-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model