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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 11

Washington Commanders 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 3-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model