4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 10

Washington Commanders 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 3-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.73 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model