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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 12-T.Brady right guard to TB 35 for 2 yards (55-C.Holcomb). QB sneak

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.31 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model