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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 28

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 3-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model