4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2021-11-14 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

JAX
28.5%
IND
71.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.092 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

JAX 18
–
IND 26
Projected margin: IND by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

JAX

James Robinson RB Questionable Heel

IND

Xavier Rhodes CB Out Calf
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 17
–
IND 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:01 FG IND (10:01) 6-M.Badgley 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 08:32 TD IND (8:32) 9-L.Cooke punt is BLOCKED by 44-Z.Franklin, Center-46-R.Matiscik, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at JAX 12. 45-E.Speed for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – IND 9
  • Q1 02:56 TD IND (2:56) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – IND 16
  • Q1 01:13 TD JAX (1:13) (Shotgun) 39-J.Agnew left end for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 17
  • Q2 01:46 FG IND (1:46) 6-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 6 – IND 20
  • Q2 00:04 FG JAX (:04) 15-M.Wright 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 9 – IND 20
  • Q4 10:38 TD JAX (10:38) 90-M.Brown reported in as eligible. 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 15 – IND 20
  • Q4 02:26 FG IND (2:26) 6-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 17 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (10:01) 6-M.Badgley 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:32) 9-L.Cooke punt is BLOCKED by 44-Z.Franklin, Center-46-R.Matiscik, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at JAX 12. 45-E.Speed for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to IND 47, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to IND 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (11:11) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to IND 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to JAX 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 36%

    (5:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to IND 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 18 for 11 yards (49-C.Russell).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 97%

    (1:46) 6-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to JAX 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 30 for 8 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 64%

    (:04) 15-M.Wright 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 76%

    (11:00) 15-M.Wright 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 27%

    (9:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 16 for 6 yards (49-M.Adams, 16-A.Dulin).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to IND 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines. Penalty on IND, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 10 yards (30-G.Odum).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:35) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 39 for 12 yards (45-E.Speed, 58-B.Okereke). PENALTY on JAX-27-C.Claybrooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 33.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to IND 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (2:26) 6-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.