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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to IND 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 18 for 11 yards (49-C.Russell).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP