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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 85

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model