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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 16 for 6 yards (49-M.Adams, 16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP