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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to JAX 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 30 for 8 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model