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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 15-M.Wright 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.37 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model