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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 89

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to IND 47, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model