Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(8:32) 9-L.Cooke punt is BLOCKED by 44-Z.Franklin, Center-46-R.Matiscik, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at JAX 12. 45-E.Speed for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 76, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model