Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 39 for 12 yards (45-E.Speed, 58-B.Okereke). PENALTY on JAX-27-C.Claybrooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model