Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

(7:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to IND 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model