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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -14.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

BUF
74.0%
JAX
26.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.087 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.182 EPA/dropback
  • BUF defense: -0.234 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
JAX 15
Projected margin: BUF by 9 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

BUF

Spencer Brown T Out Back
Jon Feliciano G Out Calf
Dawson Knox TE Out Hand
Cole Beasley WR Questionable Ribs
Jordan Poyer S Questionable Shoulder

JAX

James Robinson RB Questionable Heel

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 6
–
JAX 9

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:00 FG JAX (9:00) 15-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. BUF 0 – JAX 3
  • Q1 03:57 FG BUF (3:57) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 11:03 FG BUF (11:03) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 05:36 FG JAX (5:36) 15-M.Wright 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. BUF 6 – JAX 6
  • Q4 12:13 FG JAX (12:13) 15-M.Wright 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. BUF 6 – JAX 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 38%

    (11:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew to BUF 20 for 23 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 88%

    (9:00) 15-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (3:57) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to BUF 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (11:03) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 55%

    (5:36) 15-M.Wright 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:33) 3-M.Haack punts 59 yards to JAX 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 22 for 14 yards (25-T.Jones; 44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:16) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-13-G.Davis.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (5:45) 15-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 96%

    (13:29) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to BUF 8 for 3 yards (98-S.Lotulelei). PENALTY on BUF-39-L.Wallace, Taunting, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 8.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (12:13) 15-M.Wright 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 26%

    (10:04) 3-M.Haack punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to BUF 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-46-R.Matiscik.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 16%

    (3:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 20 for no gain (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 16 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 20%

    (:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to BUF 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-55-L.McCray.