Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

(:16) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-13-G.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.67 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -2.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model