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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 15-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.51 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model