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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 9 at the 23
Buffalo Bills 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3
What Actually Happened
(11:03) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
The Three Options
GO
+0.77 EP
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.85 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.43 EP
KICK
+0.92 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
- 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT
-0.68 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
