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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 43

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew to BUF 20 for 23 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.40 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model