Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Buffalo Bills 6

(8:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to BUF 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-46-R.Matiscik.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model