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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 6

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP