Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

(3:33) 3-M.Haack punts 59 yards to JAX 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 22 for 14 yards (25-T.Jones; 44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.82 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model