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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 20 for no gain (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model