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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 3

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 15-M.Wright 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP