4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 20:20 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DAL
48.1%
MIN
51.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.185 vs Cooper Rush (DAL) -0.101 EPA/dropback (DAL starting Cooper Rush in place of Dak Prescott)
  • MIN offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DAL

Dorance Armstrong DE Questionable Ankle
Dak Prescott QB Questionable Calf
Tyron Smith T Questionable Ankle

MIN

Michael Pierce DT Out Elbow
Patrick Jones DE Doubtful Knee
Dede Westbrook WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
MIN 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:55 TD MIN (11:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 06:13 FG DAL (6:13) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – MIN 7
  • Q2 01:49 FG MIN (1:49) 1-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. DAL 3 – MIN 10
  • Q3 14:18 TD DAL (14:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 1-C.Wilson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – MIN 10
  • Q3 06:36 FG MIN (6:36) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. DAL 10 – MIN 13
  • Q3 00:08 FG DAL (:08) 2-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 13 – MIN 13
  • Q4 02:54 FG MIN (2:54) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. DAL 13 – MIN 16
  • Q4 00:55 TD DAL (:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – MIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (5:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 36%

    (3:59) 3-J.Berry punts 44 yards to DAL 5, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 34%

    (12:44) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DAL 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 20 for 7 yards (42-A.DePaola).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (6:13) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:49) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to DAL 24 for 32 yards (18-D.Kazee).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (1:49) 1-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:43) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to MIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-K.Osborn.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 12 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 27%

    (11:20) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DAL 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-45-T.Dye.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 18 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:42) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to MIN 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at MIN 45 for 7 yards (20-T.Pollard).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (6:36) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:01) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-44-J.McQuaide. DAL-14-J.Cox was injured during the play.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:21) 3-J.Berry punts 39 yards to DAL 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 28 for -3 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (:08) 2-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:46) 3-J.Berry punts 51 yards to DAL 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 19 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:13) 3-J.Berry punts 29 yards to DAL 32, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-44-J.Metellus.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:15) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-K.Osborn.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (2:54) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [94-R.Gregory].