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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model