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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to DAL 24 for 32 yards (18-D.Kazee).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.11 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model