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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 3-J.Berry punts 51 yards to DAL 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model