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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 5

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 5, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model