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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DAL 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-45-T.Dye.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model