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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [94-R.Gregory].

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.27 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -0.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP