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Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
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NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
Sunday 2021-10-24 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CAR
48.9%
NYG
51.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (CAR): -0.040 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CAR

Terrace Marshall WR Out Concussion
Giovanni Ricci FB Out Concussion
Shaq Thompson LB Out Foot
Cameron Erving T Questionable Illness
Alex Erickson WR Questionable Concussion

NYG

Saquon Barkley RB Out Ankle
Kenny Golladay WR Out Knee
Kadarius Toney WR Out Ankle
Danny Shelton DT Doubtful Pectoral
Tae Crowder LB Questionable Thigh
Evan Engram TE Questionable Calf
John Ross WR Questionable Hamstring
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Hamstring
Darius Slayton WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 3
–
NYG 25

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:42 FG CAR (8:42) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow. CAR 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 14:56 SAF NYG (14:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle [99-L.Williams]. PENALTY on CAR-14-S.Darnold, Intentional Grounding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. CAR 3 – NYG 2
  • Q2 12:57 FG NYG (12:57) 5-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CAR 3 – NYG 5
  • Q3 01:05 TD NYG (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 13-D.Pettis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 3 – NYG 11
  • Q4 12:47 FG NYG (12:47) 5-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CAR 3 – NYG 15
  • Q4 05:58 FG NYG (5:58) 5-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CAR 3 – NYG 18
  • Q4 04:52 TD NYG (4:52) (Shotgun) 28-D.Booker left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – NYG 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:22) (No Huddle) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 38 for 2 yards (48-T.Crowder).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

    (8:42) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (5:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:54) 10-R.Winslow punts 28 yards to CAR 41, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (:42) 28-D.Booker right guard to CAR 2 for -1 yards (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

    (12:57) 5-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:55) 10-R.Winslow punts 39 yards to NYG 38, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 38 for no gain (23-S.Thomas-Oliver).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 20 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (8:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CAR 13, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 23 for 10 yards (47-C.Brown).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 39%

    (1:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:18) 10-R.Winslow punts 46 yards to NYG 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 33 for 2 yards (57-C.Johnston). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (10:37) 10-R.Winslow punts 32 yards to NYG 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 30 for 12 yards (27-K.Robinson). PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24. Officially, a return for 6 yards.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to CAR 29, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 33 for 4 yards (43-N.Ebner, 47-C.Brown).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:44) 10-R.Winslow punts 40 yards to NYG 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 25 for 6 yards (42-S.Franklin, 49-F.Luvu). NYG-21-J.Peppers was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (15:00) 10-R.Winslow punts 34 yards to NYG 46, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-K.Robinson.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%

    (12:47) 5-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (5:58) 5-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 81 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:58) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass incomplete deep left to 11-R.Anderson.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:44) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker scrambles up the middle to NYG 48 for 13 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%

    (2:55) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker sacked at NYG 33 for -4 yards (51-A.Ojulari).