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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 5

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 10-R.Winslow punts 40 yards to NYG 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 25 for 6 yards (42-S.Franklin, 49-F.Luvu). NYG-21-J.Peppers was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.07 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP