Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 57

New York Giants 5 – Carolina Panthers 3

(8:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CAR 13, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 23 for 10 yards (47-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
78% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model