Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 25

(3:44) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker scrambles up the middle to NYG 48 for 13 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.05 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP