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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 1
New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 3
What Actually Happened
(:42) 28-D.Booker right guard to CAR 2 for -1 yards (42-S.Franklin).
The Three Options
GO
+4.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
- 38% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.72 EP
KICK
+2.26 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
