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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 5

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 10-R.Winslow punts 39 yards to NYG 38, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 38 for no gain (23-S.Thomas-Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.00 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP