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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 80

New York Giants 5 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to CAR 29, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 33 for 4 yards (43-N.Ebner, 47-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.02 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model