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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 5

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 10-R.Winslow punts 32 yards to NYG 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 30 for 12 yards (27-K.Robinson). PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24. Officially, a return for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model