4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (No Huddle) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 38 for 2 yards (48-T.Crowder).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model