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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 27

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model