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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

HOU
28.1%
IND
71.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Davis Mills (HOU): -0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 18
–
IND 26
Projected margin: IND by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

HOU

Laremy Tunsil T Out Thumb
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Justin Britt C Questionable Knee
Desmond King CB Questionable Hip
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Thigh
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Hip

IND

Rodrigo Blankenship K Out right Hip
Andrew Sendejo S Out Concussion
Braden Smith T Out Foot
Kemoko Turay DE Out Groin
Jordan Wilkins RB Out Non-Football Illness
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 3
–
IND 31

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:59 TD IND (1:59) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-P.Campbell for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-8-T.Brooks was injured during the play. He is Out. HOU 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 13:04 FG IND (13:04) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 0 – IND 10
  • Q2 06:20 FG HOU (6:20) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – IND 10
  • Q3 11:56 TD IND (11:56) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – IND 16
  • Q3 06:40 TD IND (6:40) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – IND 23
  • Q4 04:51 TD IND (4:51) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – IND 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 27 for 6 yards (46-J.Weeks).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:39) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 27%

    (5:17) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%

    (15:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 21 yards to IND 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 87%

    (13:04) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (6:20) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 38%

    (1:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-46-L.Rhodes.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:13) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to IND 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-33-A.Moore.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at HOU 21 for 3 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (9:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to IND 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 12 for 2 yards (33-A.Moore).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (14:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short middle to 88-J.Akins [53-D.Leonard].

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:05) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:18) 2-M.Ingram right end to HOU 36 for 1 yard (94-T.Lewis, 58-B.Okereke).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%

    (6:29) 21-N.Hines left end to HOU 21 for 7 yards (39-T.Mitchell, 1-L.Johnson).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (1:16) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to HOU 40, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.